TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x017a…caffbacked Yes0c14,970$15 inLost-$14.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2725…7cbcbacked Yes0c12,820$13 inLost-$12.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes2c1,274$30 inLost-$29.66680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d62…ab8abacked Yes1c1,114$13 inLost-$13.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5f…a693backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost-$18230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes1c992.07$14 inLost-$13.643420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbd…eeabbacked Yes1c860.37$11 inLost-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0504…8f32backed Yes2c763.07$14 inLost-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb94…38efbacked Yes2c730.56$13 inLost-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…bc60backed Yes2c683.26$13 inLost-$12.661526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3548…b7c0backed Yes2c662.37$12 inLost-$11.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0c…9141backed Yes2c526.32$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes8c471.34$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.