TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,402 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes5c4,207$215 inLost-$214.565145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a2…73c4backed Yes7c1,272$88 inLost-$87.63560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick16cpaid+284.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes6c1,176$71 inLost-$70.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost-$48.621910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost-$607626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes5c1,000$53 inLost-$52.943420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$50230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203c…6d7fbacked Yes8c721.51$56 inLost-$56425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…7614backed Yes4c573.27$25 inLost-$24.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+157.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes6c530.07$30 inLost-$301833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba6…2f9dbacked Yes9c499.98$46 inLost-$461250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes6c480.85$27 inLost-$272015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes5c456.14$25 inLost-$25850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+184.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes6c357.38$23 inLost-$22.898342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dee…e4a3backed Yes6c348.32$21 inLost-$20.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…fae7backed Yes6c333.5$20 inLost-$20560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+85%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3058…33e1backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c325$20 inLost-$20.344629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes5c300$16 inLost-$15.97234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes4c280$12 inLost-$12.34248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb94…38efbacked Yes7c272.17$19 inLost-$19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd740…54f6backed Yes10c264.32$28 inLost-$27.72728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes5c237.47$12 inLost-$11.871127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73c8…dec4backed Yes7c202.85$14 inLost-$13.751921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes7c200$13 inLost-$13.215119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa229…7d09backed Yes10c154.07$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No80c63.6$51 inWon+$12.722951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.