TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,963 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes5c1,342$67 inWon+$1,274.9314938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inWon+$1,150650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+197.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f0a…00adbacked Yes9c1,136$100 inWon+$1,036.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick11cpaid+432.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes8c1,092$89 inWon+$1,002.39333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3b2…296ebacked Yes7c761.68$52 inWon+$709.261442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+208.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes11c627.25$72 inWon+$555.33420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…b409backed Yes8c500$41 inWon+$459.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+73.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes13c500$65 inWon+$435.33030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes9c391$35 inWon+$356.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.42per pick29cpaid+265%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1936…e89cbacked Yes9c380.2$34 inWon+$346.38560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+213.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes8c320.53$25 inWon+$295.53850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+184.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes8c300$24 inWon+$276728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+101.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes8c297.29$25 inWon+$272.291520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd665…072fbacked Yes7c296.43$20 inWon+$276.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+394%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes7c256.24$18 inWon+$238.394643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes8c255$20 inWon+$2351127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…e701backed Yes8c250$20 inWon+$2302100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.84per pick17cpaid+725%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes5c250$14 inWon+$236.458234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf80f…428fbacked Yes6c225.46$14 inWon+$211.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,549.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes9c225.43$20 inWon+$205.43156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da8…c5ffbacked Yes7c214.29$15 inWon+$199.29520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes12c207.29$25 inWon+$182.292015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes8c200$16 inWon+$184.44928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes8c180$15 inWon+$165.0415119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…7fa6backed Yes8c178.11$14 inWon+$163.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1446…939abacked No80c138.4$110 inLost-$110.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed Yes7c137.2$10 inWon+$127.23740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd31…4b87backed Yes15c133.35$20 inWon+$113.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a2…73c4backed Yes8c128.41$11 inWon+$117.89560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick16cpaid+284.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb804…de03backed Yes8c127.51$10 inWon+$117.513100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+470%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ddf…507fbacked Yes8c123$10 inWon+$112.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,090.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1617…d39fbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inWon+$97.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32fb…49c7backed Yes13c116.87$15 inWon+$101.87540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+102.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a40…282dbacked Yes61c97.76$60 inWon+$37.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes20c61$12 inWon+$48.71040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb94…38efbacked Yes50c41.75$21 inWon+$20.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x730c…f684backed No69c28.99$20 inLost-$20.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.