TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,583 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65e2…ea00backed No39c28,411$11,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,080.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1b…b5fabacked Yes61c28,411$17,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,080.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes36c17,918$6,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,554.045145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked No63c12,456$7,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,904.34520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes61c5,933$3,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No39c5,277$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.412240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes61c4,078$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.158140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No41c3,717$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.5922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes57c1,920$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.152245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes37c1,707$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.73862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No62c1,570$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.13941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked No61c1,200$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.935335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes37c1,135$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+97.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes59c1,100$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.491030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3396…458dbacked Yes50c1,064$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.741947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No37c1,056$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.482540%10 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No62c1,026$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.364643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No62c1,023$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.042832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.42per pick29cpaid+265%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0212…dc7fbacked No63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Yes36c1,000$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No66c965.56$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.044748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa890…1c30backed Yes37c880$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f67…15c4backed Yes38c880$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No41c817.9$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.134731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1240…3a3fbacked Yes39c777.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+113.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No37c732.03$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.81637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a92…65ecbacked No4c670.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+55.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No40c612$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.684240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafc…7939backed Yes37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffba…1dbabacked No63c570$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes59c550$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2281266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No41c542.42$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.22030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed No37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccc1…b2b3backed No38c519.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4345…77fabacked No4c508.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Yes52c502.5$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+85.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3054344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3202638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054a…013fbacked Yes62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f19…d4f3backed No38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21014835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No49c460.03$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2319939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes37c399.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.994440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d14…37d6backed Yes38c395.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+54.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes37c354.71$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.021850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4956…e2c7backed Yes77c338.67$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No62c330$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c7…5c4dbacked Yes39c307.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes42c297.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.637027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes57c282.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.571717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-62.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842e…074cbacked Yes38c263.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…531cbacked Yes37c260$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes59c259.67$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.514938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994f…d982backed No63c255$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed No40c251.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No36c245$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.23935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac86…69eabacked Yes63c242.53$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f0…9941backed Yes63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.11127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No37c220.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.542030%6 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes27c203.87$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.843420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes61c196.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c186.24$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4416334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes49c178.89$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.25046%23 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No38c173.74$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.027343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes39c172.59$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.289335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes39c170.08$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.755320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4180…6041backed No63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes25c169.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c167.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6568…f587backed Yes36c161.42$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.27560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c161$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.322640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick29cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No38c144.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.393737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe221…234dbacked No37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…b409backed Yes39c134.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.562339.1%9 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+73.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ce3…429ebacked Yes38c134.21$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes37c133.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Yes39c129.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.05277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc6…411fbacked Yes62c129.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.033145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…c633backed No39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeccd…76ddbacked No40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No65c121$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.21560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes52c119.69$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.692729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes37c117$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c8…79ecbacked Yes61c114$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.32540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aff…e200backed Yes39c109.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes39c108$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.887740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked No63c103.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No63c103.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcb64…4eb4backed No49c101.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.515119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.