TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No7c31,953$2,298 inLost-$2,297.821931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No3c6,021$209 inLost-$208.613941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No6c3,908$234 inLost-$234.56642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed No13c2,804$367 inLost-$367.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-53.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No6c1,818$102 inLost-$101.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4345…77fabacked No8c1,134$89 inLost-$8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No6c950$57 inLost-$571844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5448…c169backed No8c835.68$64 inLost-$64520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No7c692.71$52 inLost-$51.561637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ae…16afbacked No7c645.13$45 inLost-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed No18c631.53$112 inLost-$112.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No7c600$42 inLost-$42540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No4c500$20 inLost-$203438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked No10c465.9$47 inLost-$46.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No9c407.83$38 inLost-$38.163737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No6c404.46$25 inLost-$24.517740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc7…d48ebacked No5c373.65$19 inLost-$18.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38cb…aba9backed No6c346$22 inLost-$21.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b8…c4ddbacked No8c316.46$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…b162backed No5c308.45$14 inLost-$14.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x393e…bf9dbacked No5c276.38$15 inLost-$14.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed No5c270.62$14 inLost-$13.53310%0 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed No8c250$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8c…465bbacked No6c235.26$14 inLost-$14.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bab…9d94backed No5c227.39$10 inLost-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…095fbacked No5c219.77$11 inLost-$11.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62c…9a08backed No7c210.23$14 inLost-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb438…b689backed No6c209.93$13 inLost-$13.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3994…8898backed No7c191.86$13 inLost-$13.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No9c175.7$16 inLost-$16.494748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No17c168.72$29 inLost-$28.512638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No10c154$15 inLost-$15.412835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc893…9241backed No9c117.75$10 inLost-$10.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd31…4b87backed No17c117.65$20 inLost-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb02…865dbacked No13c113.03$15 inLost-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.