TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,548 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4754…5b07backed Yes0c10,670$11 inLost-$10.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Yes6c2,542$150 inLost-$150277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…3507backed Yes1c1,173$12 inLost-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes3c1,062$27 inLost-$26.621618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes6c1,036$64 inLost-$64.293420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost-$19.93230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes2c829.98$17 inLost-$172015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes2c741.37$15 inLost-$14.833839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cc4…24b9backed Yes2c719$14 inLost-$14.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c640$14 inLost-$14.054629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa1…3240backed Yes2c529.48$13 inLost-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4553…f8d6backed Yes3c474.07$13 inLost-$12.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33a…7576backed Yes2c459.99$10 inLost-$10.121414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5e…8919backed Yes3c456.92$12 inLost-$12.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No80c49.02$39 inWon+$102755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.