TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,009 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes6c4,166$250 inLost-$249.96911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ab…fa88backed Yes7c1,460$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes6c1,410$89 inLost-$89.334129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375d…45a3backed Yes7c1,199$80 inLost-$80.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes6c999.05$60 inLost-$59.641717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes6c999.05$64 inLost-$64.133420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc03…64c6backed Yes7c796.43$56 inLost-$55.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe395…3a53backed Yes7c514.85$35 inLost-$3560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc25…1cafbacked Yes4c429$15 inLost-$15.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8495…5e97backed Yes13c391.32$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…c633backed Yes5c372.34$20 inLost-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed5…6b6bbacked Yes5c358.63$16 inLost-$16.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes6c340.43$20 inLost-$20.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Yes7c287.16$20 inLost-$20277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca9…1601backed Yes7c287.14$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4461…c61cbacked Yes5c283.84$15 inLost-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe260…6168backed Yes5c282.13$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…8ecbbacked Yes6c251.01$15 inLost-$14.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes4c250$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes5c240$13 inLost-$12.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes14c174.83$25 inLost-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed Yes14c150$21 inLost-$20.851513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c7…5c4dbacked Yes14c132.94$19 inLost-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.