TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes2c6,816$126 inLost-$125.839333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c4,264$166 inLost-$165.6922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5516…cbf4backed Yes4c2,116$92 inLost-$9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,036$52 inLost-$52.474629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3dc…c3e2backed Yes3c1,653$45 inLost-$45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe395…3a53backed Yes4c1,324$53 inLost-$52.8460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$50.13420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes3c858.51$26 inLost-$26.361010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…3a28backed Yes7c756.55$50 inLost-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b6…197dbacked Yes7c723.24$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes7c682.68$48 inLost-$47.948140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ce3…91c1backed Yes8c608.13$50 inLost-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6d…3953backed Yes5c600$30 inLost-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c566.41$21 inLost-$21.0124732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes9c546.35$49 inLost-$48.71248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a09…cdffbacked Yes9c505.36$48 inLost-$481346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b9…cc71backed Yes4c494.18$18 inLost-$17.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1278…1033backed Yes6c409.99$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4864…80f3backed Yes4c344.46$13 inLost-$13.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e4…6fd7backed Yes4c332.31$15 inLost-$14.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes7c303.79$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8762…4681backed Yes5c266.94$13 inLost-$13.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes7c249.99$17 inLost-$16.611827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcced…eb23backed Yes7c230.17$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49f…4506backed Yes8c218.59$17 inLost-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes10c206.95$21 inLost-$20.61040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4f…92dbbacked Yes13c151.54$20 inLost-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+43.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…d68abacked Yes14c147.93$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32fb…49c7backed Yes17c116.86$20 inLost-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+102.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4b1…0c12backed Yes11c100.65$11 inLost-$10.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes14c94.79$13 inLost-$13.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4360…1635backed Yes13c89.5$11 inLost-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8f9…1b68backed Yes26c43.31$11 inLost-$11.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.