TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x915c…c1a9backed Yes3c3,070$105 inLost-$105837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes4c1,100$47 inLost-$47.2230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes3c1,000$34 inLost-$33.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes6c705.49$43 inLost-$43.483420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c44…e239backed Yes4c698.56$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes4c565.49$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes4c425$17 inLost-$16.83030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6816…eda8backed Yes3c388.7$10 inLost-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0435…3aa4backed Yes4c384.42$15 inLost-$14.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…7b0cbacked Yes4c374.36$14 inLost-$14.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96cd…814abacked Yes4c347.33$15 inLost-$14.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe70…33f9backed Yes4c342$14 inLost-$13.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8d…79c2backed Yes4c338.46$14 inLost-$14.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c9c…4f90backed Yes4c334.29$13 inLost-$12.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a9…3b6abacked Yes4c332.09$14 inLost-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea8…ffedbacked Yes4c302.63$12 inLost-$11.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…101abacked Yes4c279.61$11 inLost-$10.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfead…f7bdbacked Yes4c256.51$11 inLost-$10.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9053…0969backed Yes4c252.17$11 inLost-$10.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e0…19b9backed Yes8c237.53$20 inLost-$204259.5%25 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd2e…9bd4backed Yes12c115.59$14 inLost-$14.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.