Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeff40bab8fafd991f21c887d8094a924097dd92ab7aaab84b272d1196a76afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x244d…01a3backed No | 1c | 53,620$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…4cc5backed No | 0c | 41,516$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed No | 2c | 41,026$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed No | 3c | 23,496$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…9abbbacked No | 1c | 10,875$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…dae5backed No | 4c | 10,073$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…63cabacked No | 1c | 8,847$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 8,728$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.69 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…9bf0backed No | 4c | 5,979$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 0c | 5,964$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…1051backed No | 2c | 4,906$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…35d3backed No | 3c | 4,276$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…d5efbacked No | 1c | 3,810$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…becdbacked No | 11c | 2,890$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked No | 15c | 2,509$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.46 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 2,150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3dd3backed No | 5c | 1,962$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…1a90backed No | 2c | 1,920$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,796$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.97 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,722$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 1c | 1,654$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…fb30backed No | 6c | 1,599$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked No | 2c | 1,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…85f6backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 3c | 999.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed No | 2c | 987.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…61b5backed No | 6c | 967.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 29c | 955.36$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.65 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 930.02$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed No | 6c | 916.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 77c | 907.44$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 23c | 780$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.38 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1da…de8bbacked No | 2c | 774.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 739.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…a56dbacked No | 2c | 610$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 17c | 502.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…32dfbacked No | 6c | 480.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34b5…8babbacked Yes | 72c | 479.71$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…8d94backed No | 16c | 462.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482e…2d55backed No | 4c | 396.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 69c | 381.35$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…016ebacked No | 23c | 353.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 71c | 342.2$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 10c | 341.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 77c | 323$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 68c | 280$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…ac35backed No | 6c | 260.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 15c | 216.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 202.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…bbe0backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 199.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…03f1backed No | 11c | 182.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…c957backed No | 6c | 162.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eed…d992backed No | 28c | 151.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 77c | 129.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…a468backed No | 28c | 125.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…b117backed Yes | 66c | 109.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 17c | 109.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed Yes | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…3debbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 76c | 52.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…9d33backed No | 30c | 47.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 73c | 41.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 40c | 39.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 74c | 36.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 73c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 68c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…1292backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.