Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc603767a9d84268e3039a2002a991f2dd35bdc59e641ac64b97dcc9ec4626728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,955$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,353$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,064$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 18c | 905$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 12c | 858.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed Yes | 17c | 582$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 17c | 560$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 468.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 306.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 17c | 264$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 17c | 256$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 17c | 236$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 79c | 197$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 18c | 154$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 139.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 114.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 12c | 112.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 20c | 100.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 97.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 15c | 73.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 69.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e7…f5cfbacked Yes | 24c | 62.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed No | 80c | 47.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 76c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.