Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506616ecb5635714d4cf888d082ffb16eeed5ab077b4a44dd94a6f25b5b07c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed No | 4c | 30,985$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…63cabacked No | 1c | 15,030$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…1a90backed No | 0c | 12,910$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked No | 1c | 11,269$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…285cbacked No | 1c | 5,773$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 9c | 4,362$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.39 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked No | 3c | 4,053$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…dae5backed No | 3c | 3,898$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…20e8backed No | 3c | 3,756$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…1051backed No | 1c | 3,485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed No | 3c | 3,109$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…9bf0backed No | 4c | 2,250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…312fbacked No | 2c | 1,810$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 2c | 1,729$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…8d94backed No | 9c | 1,712$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 74c | 1,360$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 31c | 1,307$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 1,300$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34b5…8babbacked Yes | 76c | 1,188$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…d5efbacked No | 1c | 1,101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 29c | 1,066$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f09cbacked No | 9c | 950.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +374.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…945bbacked No | 5c | 942.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 939.35$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked No | 4c | 897.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 40c | 888.56$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.29 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 7c | 874.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 29c | 794.07$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 61c | 614.46$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 77c | 587.57$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 11c | 459.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 432.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 294.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 36c | 292.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…285cbacked No | 25c | 285.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95eb…274ebacked No | 32c | 236.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 56c | 178.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 18c | 141.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…3debbacked Yes | 73c | 140.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 49c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed No | 26c | 115.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 43c | 113.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed No | 25c | 90.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 68c | 82.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 76.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…34a3backed No | 19c | 67.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 29c | 55.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8719…16a2backed No | 31c | 53.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…9481backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…a567backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 35c | 48.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96ba…9209backed No | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…4cadbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3933backed No | 58c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091b…de96backed Yes | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.