Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db517d0ec515436adea57297703f021264eb1b5d6dfac85d827ac773cf4e4af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb13…ab46backed No | 0c | 131,329$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…f403backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 75c | 12,913$9,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.96 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed No | 6c | 10,622$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 30c | 5,381$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.86 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 25c | 3,938$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.83 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 16c | 3,439$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.38 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 3,403$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.61 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 3,116$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.24 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 15c | 2,997$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.32 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 26c | 2,945$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.63 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 61c | 2,895$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.38 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,686$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 5c | 2,175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked No | 17c | 2,044$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…999cbacked No | 1c | 1,719$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 1,636$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.62 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…d5efbacked No | 3c | 1,615$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,344$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.96 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…2a3cbacked No | 6c | 1,291$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…9bf0backed No | 4c | 1,258$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…e0c9backed No | 23c | 1,066$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…b12dbacked No | 1c | 1,033$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 37c | 1,023$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.73 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked No | 11c | 1,014$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked No | 2c | 1,002$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 56c | 894.58$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.04 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 42c | 822.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.3 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 4c | 754.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 76c | 749.99$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…feadbacked No | 76c | 742$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 5c | 738.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…a7b3backed No | 79c | 683.41$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 78c | 599.99$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…02b9backed No | 17c | 597.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 4c | 549.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked No | 10c | 547.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 56c | 545$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 8c | 537.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7499…bd77backed No | 3c | 523.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…5018backed No | 18c | 514$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 9c | 494.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…9a07backed No | 10c | 484.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…3debbacked No | 32c | 450$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 8c | 436.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…0a5cbacked No | 6c | 423.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 65c | 412.64$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d79bbacked No | 25c | 402$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed No | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 13c | 399.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 15c | 390.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580c…6d83backed No | 76c | 384.16$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.14 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d31…fd3fbacked No | 3c | 378.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bc…1fddbacked No | 21c | 370.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 9c | 356.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed No | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a2…5a68backed No | 7c | 343.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…84b6backed No | 17c | 318.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked No | 18c | 310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…5ea4backed No | 33c | 302.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 301.31$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 301$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…39dfbacked No | 4c | 280.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 20c | 278.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…9897backed No | 10c | 250.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 250.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 52c | 231.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 29c | 225.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…6ee1backed No | 22c | 222.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed No | 5c | 217.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…b7e5backed No | 12c | 211.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f5…2a5dbacked No | 25c | 202.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…cf2fbacked No | 21c | 199.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed Yes | 14c | 173.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…a831backed No | 29c | 172.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 77c | 169$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…e766backed No | 68c | 165.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +249.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 10c | 157.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 16c | 157.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…e34bbacked Yes | 25c | 156.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 47c | 152.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9a38backed No | 37c | 136.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…82a9backed Yes | 38c | 135.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…b09fbacked No | 77c | 130.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…9108backed No | 72c | 127.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…38bebacked No | 78c | 126.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked No | 80c | 119$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…6fb5backed No | 11c | 113.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…6bc6backed No | 16c | 110.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked No | 23c | 106.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…3083backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.