Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989300533e65daae5c22d4be369cbc8838b5737257e93a75a1e50baf53e5e3de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd980…5be0backed No | 2c | 12,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…63cabacked No | 1c | 9,365$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…285cbacked No | 1c | 9,195$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed No | 3c | 9,189$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 4c | 8,683$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…9bf0backed No | 4c | 8,328$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 7,268$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed No | 4c | 4,938$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 2c | 4,489$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked No | 4c | 4,333$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…e111backed No | 1c | 3,900$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 65c | 3,783$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.23 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked No | 9c | 3,144$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…05e4backed No | 4c | 2,506$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 67c | 2,484$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.16 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7499…bd77backed No | 4c | 2,104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…0a5cbacked No | 5c | 2,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 10c | 1,994$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…1051backed No | 2c | 1,711$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,638$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…7b78backed No | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…a7b3backed No | 72c | 1,386$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.65 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 45c | 1,332$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.87 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…7f2cbacked No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 62c | 1,168$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.31 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed No | 2c | 1,131$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…5fabbacked No | 1c | 1,065$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 49c | 1,048$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.3 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,019$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.35 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 50c | 998.78$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 42c | 990.19$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.31 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked No | 3c | 955.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…5ea4backed No | 4c | 944.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…945bbacked No | 11c | 941.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed No | 13c | 897.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119c…0db3backed No | 2c | 857.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…1238backed No | 1c | 843.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 802.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d31…fd3fbacked No | 1c | 792.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked No | 58c | 775.86$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 3c | 734.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 77c | 728$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.45 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…2ec5backed No | 2c | 715.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9284…d7d8backed No | 3c | 689.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…7f1dbacked No | 74c | 671.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 48c | 623.39$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 3c | 601.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…dd9fbacked No | 13c | 549.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed No | 66c | 547.68$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…312fbacked No | 12c | 546.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 79c | 524.24$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 40c | 523.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.17 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 496.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.41 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 414.6$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.41 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 389.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…4f08backed No | 4c | 372.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 65c | 357$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 58c | 351.56$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 51c | 344.81$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.51 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…4e9abacked No | 10c | 344.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 9c | 341.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…472cbacked No | 5c | 319.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 315.01$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfa…3c08backed Yes | 46c | 294$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…75cfbacked Yes | 37c | 279$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…e132backed Yes | 28c | 262.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed No | 10c | 260.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 66c | 238.79$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…ae26backed Yes | 32c | 234.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 35c | 234.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 52c | 226.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…e34bbacked No | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153e…7d1bbacked No | 77c | 218$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…05d7backed No | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 8c | 189.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…c2edbacked No | 14c | 175.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 32c | 165.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 156$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…49a9backed Yes | 39c | 154$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…7e29backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…3572backed No | 65c | 146$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…81dfbacked No | 79c | 141.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…c4d3backed Yes | 37c | 137.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 75c | 133.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked No | 17c | 127$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…3c49backed Yes | 37c | 126$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9432…f33dbacked No | 10c | 115.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…aae2backed Yes | 37c | 112$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 105.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 33c | 104.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 27c | 94.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.