TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd980…5be0backed No2c12,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b96…63cabacked No1c9,365$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf78…285cbacked No1c9,195$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ea…ae12backed No3c9,189$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked No4c8,683$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.242729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x613b…9bf0backed No4c8,328$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.3860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No2c7,268$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb464…1d98backed No4c4,938$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No2c4,489$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.111199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked No4c4,333$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.591450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bd5…e111backed No1c3,900$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No65c3,783$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.235532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2802…6f1ebacked No9c3,144$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1836…05e4backed No4c2,506$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes67c2,484$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.1624149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7499…bd77backed No4c2,104$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb41…0a5cbacked No5c2,059$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No2c2,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.924320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No10c1,994$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.494544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+110.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf64f…1051backed No2c1,711$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,638$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4497…7b78backed No5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb78…a7b3backed No72c1,386$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.652634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes45c1,332$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.877520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6a…7f2cbacked No8c1,300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed No62c1,168$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.315630.4%17 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed No2c1,131$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0531…5fabbacked No1c1,065$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes49c1,048$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.312245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes52c1,019$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3512525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed No50c998.78$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.912343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes42c990.19$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.314526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16a6…a0afbacked No3c955.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-87.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc776…5ea4backed No4c944.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x591f…945bbacked No11c941.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed No13c897.8$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.11811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x119c…0db3backed No2c857.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…1238backed No1c843.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c802.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d31…fd3fbacked No1c792.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked No58c775.86$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed No3c734.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No77c728$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.456063.3%38 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+114.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b35…2ec5backed No2c715.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9284…d7d8backed No3c689.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b4d…7f1dbacked No74c671.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed Yes48c623.39$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.122378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No3c601.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3826619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…dd9fbacked No13c549.62$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd76d…53b2backed No66c547.68$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a7…312fbacked No12c546.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes79c524.24$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7320143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes40c523.61$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.179250%46 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No60c496.31$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4134234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c414.6$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.4186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c389.56$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x773b…4f08backed No4c372.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff0…c7aabacked No65c357$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.051471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed No58c351.56$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7470%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes51c344.81$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.516936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3412…4e9abacked No10c344.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No9c341.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.746516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a1…472cbacked No5c319.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c315.01$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6aca…31f2backed Yes32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.51729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfa…3c08backed Yes46c294$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598c…75cfbacked Yes37c279$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c4…e132backed Yes28c262.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed No10c260.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.363259.4%19 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.26per pick33cpaid+110.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x60e8…4001backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked No66c238.79$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.687248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1534…ae26backed Yes32c234.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.771566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+63.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes35c234.03$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9719449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes52c226.46$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f83…e34bbacked No53c220$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.871346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x153e…7d1bbacked No77c218$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb02…05d7backed No19c210$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.460%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81c…e454backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No8c189.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0228438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92cc…c2edbacked No14c175.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes32c165.13$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5311537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c156$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4820749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea20…49a9backed Yes39c154$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…7e29backed No56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.26639.4%26 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4418…3572backed No65c146$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.91573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a46…81dfbacked No79c141.31$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99f…c4d3backed Yes37c137.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed No75c133.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.758457.1%48 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e97…727fbacked No17c127$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf767…3c49backed Yes37c126$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9432…f33dbacked No10c115.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…aae2backed Yes37c112$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes78c105.27$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9536035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes33c104.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2710132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ea3…52a1backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b0…7dc5backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No27c94.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2110321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.