TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes2c10,758$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2126619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes8c9,764$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.053737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes9c8,635$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.823315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No80c4,678$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.2118929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes9c3,154$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.316011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes22c2,074$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.7212525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes19c1,900$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36412650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c1,828$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c1,822$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…1867backed Yes9c1,660$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c1,463$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.893717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes13c1,421$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.734542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c1,061$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes6c1,019$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6212325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1448…6454backed Yes20c1,002$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,001$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.421,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a9…db6ebacked Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes5c920$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes27c898.94$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.648842%37 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf076…0b3cbacked Yes16c849.44$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c843.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.127135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes10c833.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.032725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes7c777.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.661245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c728.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.544625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c716.41$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes10c710.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.89400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes15c682.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes7c569.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.391216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x862c…044cbacked Yes19c526.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8076…fcbfbacked No77c452.76$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.763941%16 W · 23 L-6.4wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5864…76b9backed Yes3c445.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe4…dd93backed Yes5c440$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes10c425.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes7c407.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24030649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c386.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.044928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes11c379.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.283542.9%15 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes18c369$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.421435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes4c347.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4212616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e2e1backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-88.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed No67c274.71$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.196358.7%37 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No45c265.28$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6113864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes16c254.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5235652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed No74c248.59$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes22c246$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.519639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes18c242.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.754862.5%30 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x30e9…162bbacked Yes21c241.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f0…f5cebacked Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+168.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes5c228.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.255022%11 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed No71c225$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes18c215.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.514352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecee…35c3backed No73c211.63$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.22944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x126b…0962backed Yes24c209.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes11c207.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8729027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c6…aa4abacked Yes25c203.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No70c203.5$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511153.2%59 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes15c199.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes22c167.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.813925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes9c167$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes15c164.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.396516.9%11 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes17c159.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.915158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a1a…5cc3backed Yes22c150.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9c…61febacked No80c137.59$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.592665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes12c135.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.266235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes16c135$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.611537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b44…52d8backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c120.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.374136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes19c120.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2716046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3110…3062backed Yes40c113.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No40c112$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4620243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes21c110.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8611016.4%18 W · 92 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204017.5%7 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c6…c33bbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113050%15 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes20c99.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes16c93.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6712114%17 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No41c91.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0912542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6988…f556backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe865…3f63backed No72c86.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b4…ed0ebacked Yes14c83.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdda2…92a2backed Yes19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb010…2930backed Yes13c76.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9846…ca9ebacked No78c72.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.984757.4%27 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.15961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes21c57.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…06c0backed Yes20c52.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.537042.9%30 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes20c52.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536141%25 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc35c…cfb7backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c30.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.427560%45 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…26f1backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x381e…ca9dbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe450…91b9backed No80c19.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.96560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No79c17.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.736918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.