Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4642df0d198e647209dec3dd3b3e0c8f19d8ed364a2661e08443faae6d74c4b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,758$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 8c | 9,764$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.05 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 9c | 8,635$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 80c | 4,678$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.21 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 3,154$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.31 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,074$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.72 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 19c | 1,900$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,828$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 1,822$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1867backed Yes | 9c | 1,660$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,463$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 13c | 1,421$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,061$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 1,019$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…6454backed Yes | 20c | 1,002$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…db6ebacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 5c | 920$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 27c | 898.94$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.64 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…0b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 849.44$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 843.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 10c | 833.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 777.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 728.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 716.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 10c | 710.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes | 15c | 682.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 7c | 569.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…044cbacked Yes | 19c | 526.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…fcbfbacked No | 77c | 452.76$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 3c | 445.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Yes | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 10c | 425.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 407.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 386.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 11c | 379.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 18c | 369$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 347.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e2e1backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 67c | 274.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 45c | 265.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 254.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 74c | 248.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 22c | 246$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 18c | 242.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…162bbacked Yes | 21c | 241.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…f5cebacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 228.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 18c | 215.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed No | 73c | 211.63$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…0962backed Yes | 24c | 209.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 207.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…aa4abacked Yes | 25c | 203.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 70c | 203.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 22c | 167.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 9c | 167$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 164.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 17c | 159.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1a…5cc3backed Yes | 22c | 150.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…61febacked No | 80c | 137.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 12c | 135.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b44…52d8backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 120.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 120.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…3062backed Yes | 40c | 113.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 40c | 112$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 21c | 110.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…c33bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 20c | 99.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 16c | 93.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 41c | 91.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…f556backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed No | 72c | 86.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…ed0ebacked Yes | 14c | 83.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…92a2backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…2930backed Yes | 13c | 76.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 78c | 72.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 21c | 57.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 20c | 52.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 20c | 52.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35c…cfb7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…26f1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…ca9dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.