Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval >45% on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede69cfbc7d0d1833984d22c7c3b5adb6712c206acf2cd2a0b6e8ce02d55d86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,639$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 2,304$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.67 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…fa1dbacked No | 73c | 2,131$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,981$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 55c | 1,350$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 12c | 1,263$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,192$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 6c | 1,175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 10c | 1,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…b901backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 63c | 964$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.32 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 7c | 920.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 2c | 872.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 30c | 797.49$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 725.23$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.26 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 713.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 8c | 692.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 43c | 684.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 51c | 681$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 679$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 49c | 565.9$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.68 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 4c | 510.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 9c | 499.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 460.9$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 2c | 447.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 335.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 63c | 267$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…4eb5backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 56c | 178.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…632dbacked Yes | 33c | 164.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 64c | 148.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…e4d5backed Yes | 14c | 145.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 15c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 80.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 26c | 76.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…168abacked No | 78c | 64.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…53bdbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb823…1fc0backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…6b01backed Yes | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 58c | 42.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 57c | 42.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…c772backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 37.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…f4b5backed No | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 58c | 34.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…14d3backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 42c | 27.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…971bbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…0694backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.