World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6715ac4a0a0ae957068325765d5ff0045ed4f7263f56fa809195253f93e890e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 8c | 8,888$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.04 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 23c | 3,509$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.83 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed No | 6c | 2,922$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 4c | 1,524$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 7c | 1,186$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 62c | 673.98$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.68 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 4c | 638.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 15c | 599.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 496.91$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 67c | 493.58$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 455.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked No | 7c | 405.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 11c | 339.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…4208backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 325.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +123%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 9c | 266.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 8c | 169.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 13c | 119.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 82.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 59c | 62.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 62.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 79c | 51.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 27c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed No | 42c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…27b1backed Yes | 67c | 36.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.