TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$419,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb704…dc1ebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes59c15,572$9,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,427.741233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes47c11,111$5,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,872.012737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes52c10,055$5,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,826.56850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No1c9,494$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed No3c9,311$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.32450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6441…139ebacked No54c8,180$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,390.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed Yes54c8,174$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,763.872516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes64c7,023$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.335129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes50c6,189$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.210740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes71c6,068$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa665…b742backed No1c6,020$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No47c4,393$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.852825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0b…fa42backed No51c4,108$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes48c4,003$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfe…0845backed Yes53c3,780$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No41c3,542$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.9115445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No3c3,032$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.185111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes61c2,564$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.971070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No4c2,239$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.581118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes79c2,218$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.067639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…0800backed Yes42c2,094$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes52c1,881$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.74141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c1,874$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.2733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No37c1,738$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6112440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes48c1,710$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.18166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed No13c1,595$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes56c1,561$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.595100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed Yes63c1,556$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed No1c1,505$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No22c1,477$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.551850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No12c1,423$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.168114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No47c1,412$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.951711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed No45c1,400$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6241346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes70c1,257$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.58850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No1c1,206$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes40c1,200$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,174$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes40c1,120$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes52c1,106$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.74650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae1d…45ccbacked No53c1,094$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a9…8266backed No47c1,075$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes49c1,050$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.993125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee8f…947cbacked No2c1,044$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No56c1,000$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5563336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No24c940.83$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.134245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d1…aa6abacked Yes59c931.95$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes62c914.4$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.43850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No53c903.34$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.467352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed No46c901.29$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.15875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+214.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd95a…8aadbacked Yes40c900$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No48c880$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.480%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2662…a27ebacked Yes59c844.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3432…501ebacked Yes59c827$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No36c779.63$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.842520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes53c735$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.454957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes44c700$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3923066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes49c649.71$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.3515150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes43c648$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.365545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes30c605.71$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No66c604.99$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.43537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2828331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes77c586.53$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.33785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No27c582.46$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.494240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5769…14bcbacked Yes52c471.15$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked Yes41c463.78$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.69850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c417$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8421155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes40c412.96$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No38c409.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.275151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes10c409.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.774533.3%15 W · 30 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked No10c404.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes52c399.98$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.991050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99b…d292backed Yes47c373.2$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No48c366$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.562623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe709…9d39backed Yes31c345$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.352634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No45c339.65$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.422755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No58c338.28$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.86744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a20…f6a8backed Yes53c330.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No62c320$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x369f…2422backed Yes48c303.27$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc975…2c68backed Yes63c300.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.42653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1714062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No55c300$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.834639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4428…aa82backed Yes57c284.19$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x892b…c7a7backed Yes51c281$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.69425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed No24c271.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f9…7d23backed No37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b08…3475backed No60c270$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked No49c260.29$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.133721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Yes51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31bd…1681backed Yes39c250$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1753046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d27…9550backed No62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e2…54b2backed Yes62c246.54$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-59.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.