Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11ff723a8308bb5659efe8126db3a7272a0c3d4eebc23da1e28d7a6971844d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 39,360$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 4c | 18,223$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed Yes | 0c | 15,113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 5c | 11,846$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.44 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 13c | 11,307$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.77 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…7279backed Yes | 4c | 10,449$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 6,519$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21b…9660backed Yes | 7c | 5,718$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 4,737$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 7c | 4,098$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.42 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…4440backed Yes | 6c | 3,362$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…c6b0backed Yes | 13c | 3,354$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 3,339$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.97 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 5c | 2,747$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…ee0fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,615$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,481$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,412$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed Yes | 6c | 2,094$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 2,048$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Yes | 4c | 1,750$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a6…fd26backed Yes | 8c | 1,502$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3d9abacked Yes | 9c | 1,423$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…909abacked Yes | 8c | 1,325$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 13c | 1,210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…cc4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,053$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 4c | 1,007$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 7c | 962.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 6c | 835.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…501ebacked Yes | 6c | 827$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed Yes | 5c | 631.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 14c | 605$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 7c | 518.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…7c7ebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e2…54b2backed Yes | 16c | 474.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 5c | 472.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…a8d5backed Yes | 5c | 455.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d10…0cb3backed Yes | 13c | 447.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 6c | 413$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Yes | 15c | 392.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 6c | 383.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 4c | 381$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…2a8dbacked Yes | 6c | 362.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 7c | 353.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…2613backed Yes | 14c | 330$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes | 5c | 310.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 12c | 310$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 6c | 297.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…08e8backed Yes | 6c | 295.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…0e64backed Yes | 9c | 292.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed Yes | 4c | 281$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 16c | 277$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…1681backed Yes | 7c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 14c | 229.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…8179backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…fd67backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…9ecdbacked Yes | 16c | 123.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…e5cbbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…d710backed Yes | 17c | 90.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get more than 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.