Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fa866f93366e83414ce07f557cbc13622054fb8015facc035cdb5c0d15e25e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f8…d9a1backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 12,026$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 1c | 10,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 3c | 10,126$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4af2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…3673backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes | 4c | 5,526$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…96ddbacked Yes | 2c | 5,455$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 4,036$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 2c | 3,927$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f7…15febacked Yes | 2c | 3,067$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,723$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,689$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 2c | 2,478$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,366$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed Yes | 3c | 2,256$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…c52cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,141$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,077$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,945$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,838$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 2c | 1,634$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…e583backed Yes | 3c | 1,503$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,424$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 4c | 1,362$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…6c63backed Yes | 1c | 1,074$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,069$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,008$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 3c | 999.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 922.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 719.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8a…dc3abacked Yes | 2c | 532.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 4c | 500.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…aadcbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…a8d5backed Yes | 4c | 454.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf84…f0fabacked Yes | 5c | 421.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…8179backed Yes | 4c | 348.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…7673backed Yes | 4c | 261.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd47…b1b0backed Yes | 4c | 252.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 6c | 189.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…b1c6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get more than 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.