Us Politics · resolved market
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e65ac45d12af61673ed92b0e65866d7b7fa58ce395c71cfc86d91e10af26ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 12c | 2,378$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.01 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 59c | 2,342$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.84 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 19c | 1,273$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.95 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 64c | 779.97$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 17c | 680.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.36 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 436.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 391.89$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.45 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 21c | 388.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 63c | 316.1$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 12c | 300.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.09 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…8030backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 79c | 270.71$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 59c | 200.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 25c | 198.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 76c | 152$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 19c | 122$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 119.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 110.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 80c | 79.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 14c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 59c | 51.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…f01abacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…5996backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 31c | 38.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 35c | 33.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…4d71backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?this page
- Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.