Us Politics · resolved market
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6b9377b0703e268aa626e651f0ea6afbfdc9e85dd5c33100c7bce4638fad20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 48c | 3,521$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.47 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 9c | 3,450$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.58 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 63c | 2,922$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,984$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 1,478$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.46 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 18c | 1,327$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.31 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 12c | 1,190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.1 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 13c | 1,050$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.18 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 67c | 741.74$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 13c | 666.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.38 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 72c | 631.83$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.94 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 8c | 600$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes | 8c | 548.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 21c | 471.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.86 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 421.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.44 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 377.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.18 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 58c | 332.73$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 40c | 272.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 17c | 254.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…3781backed Yes | 20c | 252.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 55c | 227.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 33c | 222$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 20c | 216$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 36c | 202.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes | 66c | 201.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 183$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 51c | 161.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 20c | 152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 25c | 151.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee15…15a7backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 75c | 151.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 147.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 39c | 134.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 11c | 128$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…34bebacked Yes | 67c | 112.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 101.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 28c | 95.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…b210backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 74.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa543…c267backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…f2f7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…fdc4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 36c | 47.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 45.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…4d71backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…fac3backed Yes | 66c | 34.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…bfd7backed No | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…36bfbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 72c | 29.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 67c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?this page
- Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.