Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bc74ae280417939c04ac1cba8cbb9a58ca6d1b6725d61e9e3aaf00f64b58035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9261…83d4backed Yes | 22c | 7,612$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 2c | 4,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…7e96backed Yes | 5c | 4,121$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,123$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 12c | 2,902$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…ee7abacked Yes | 6c | 2,757$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…a291backed Yes | 4c | 2,589$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fb…950bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,334$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 1,898$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 7c | 1,687$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15c…10d3backed Yes | 16c | 1,635$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 9c | 1,564$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,450$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,437$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 13c | 1,408$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 7c | 1,391$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 8c | 1,037$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…4893backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 6c | 997.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 18c | 920.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 75c | 821.94$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.03 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 79c | 800$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 758.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 22c | 712.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.75 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 593.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…bd6ebacked Yes | 6c | 578.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 24c | 567.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 14c | 544.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 7c | 541.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…28e5backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…a434backed Yes | 22c | 475.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 22c | 455.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 7c | 454.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 22c | 452.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 73c | 416.01$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 11c | 398.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 393.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 13c | 389.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 12c | 385.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 24c | 361.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 11c | 360.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 7c | 341.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c3…7822backed Yes | 6c | 297.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 294.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 7c | 217.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 14c | 216.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 28c | 175.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 21c | 152.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 142.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 131.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8e…81a5backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…90aabacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…408bbacked Yes | 12c | 123.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…6b17backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…3ef4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 95.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…e1f8backed Yes | 21c | 94.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 13c | 88.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes | 13c | 84.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c49cbacked Yes | 15c | 82.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed Yes | 26c | 76.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d25…de9ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b2…140dbacked Yes | 21c | 59.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 73c | 57.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…4ae3backed No | 80c | 56.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 51c | 41.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…53c8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.