Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901298837932c44136433c5c86237cf32ce75b7d7131ef3ae33e86df99c942e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 52c | 2,298$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 64c | 2,190$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.17 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 27c | 1,593$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.9 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 9c | 1,520$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 58c | 1,498$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.55 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 27c | 1,489$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.39 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 1,433$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…4fe1backed Yes | 27c | 919.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 49c | 774.62$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 21c | 743.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 38c | 742.54$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 63c | 669.59$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.72 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 38c | 650.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 38c | 636.72$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 40c | 631.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 601.03$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 34c | 598.51$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.65 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 63c | 596.46$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.19 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 591.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 579.32$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 65c | 555$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 77c | 522.07$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 51c | 481.75$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 61c | 478.71$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.41 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 27c | 468$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…ac16backed Yes | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 45c | 445.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 20c | 442.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 434.59$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.86 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 26c | 425.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 67c | 413$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 396.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 40c | 380$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 50c | 363.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 74c | 361$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062c…6159backed Yes | 20c | 356.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed No | 76c | 342.31$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 340.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…e150backed No | 65c | 310.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 66c | 299.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 10c | 286.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 58c | 251.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 250.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 223.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 56c | 215.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 43c | 213.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 64c | 212$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…af79backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08a…d61cbacked Yes | 64c | 175.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 25c | 175.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 41c | 174.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 51c | 160.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 148.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 77c | 125.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 73c | 119.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes | 34c | 117.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 38c | 117.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 20c | 115.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 58c | 113$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 68c | 110.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 76c | 107.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 72c | 104.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked No | 64c | 103.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 54c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 43c | 93.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 51c | 91.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 49c | 90.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…99c8backed No | 76c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…e469backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 77c | 80.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 52c | 76.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 52c | 73.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…f734backed Yes | 51c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?this page
- Will Trump send the national guard to Baltimore?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Boston?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Detroit?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to New York City?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.