TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran strike on US military by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$784,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$708,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c97,062$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.8617414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes46c42,483$19,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,873.168125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfafa…a39fbacked No9c25,262$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c9…56f6backed No3c22,717$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No11c16,021$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.2920143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de8…371ebacked Yes18c15,000$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,259.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed No3c11,135$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.742010%2 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No2c10,687$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.655431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked No3c10,062$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.621811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e9…9f08backed No4c10,036$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602560%15 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed No34c9,785$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No28c9,578$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.973256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No67c8,719$5,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,878.2824839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes25c7,405$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,520.17150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed No70c7,149$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No68c7,115$4,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,864.582733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf8a0…c047backed No29c6,857$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.951315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8400…0801backed No1c6,776$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes8c6,515$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.654146.3%19 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No77c5,934$4,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.6910354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed No5c5,195$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.32653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No21c5,176$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.7919445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes10c5,174$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,681.1435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No13c5,000$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.984833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No1c4,911$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7919428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed No65c4,852$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,176.041040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c4,850$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.6642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes64c4,444$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.8412654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes45c4,271$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.1338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2aef…11c3backed No25c3,976$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed No3c3,957$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.674820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes18c3,956$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.798515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes23c3,853$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.66832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No1c3,542$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes70c3,407$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.8914039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes6c3,350$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.4442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes9c3,299$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.1622227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41f3…6202backed Yes10c3,297$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.281233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+92.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x255e…f6dcbacked No2c3,162$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.533644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8992…d4c2backed No2c3,161$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c3,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.73103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes7c3,017$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.027938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes22c2,991$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes17c2,803$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.3544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a0…6d87backed No79c2,652$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick60cpaid-62.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked No68c2,651$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb675…3d65backed No70c2,571$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ca…04f5backed No1c2,459$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e9…2c06backed No2c2,429$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes48c2,393$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.4912245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d17…f6eabacked No1c2,371$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e7…ad85backed No2c2,286$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes21c2,284$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.175414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd2…6dddbacked No3c2,188$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes23c2,172$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.8114036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa8…d94fbacked Yes75c2,141$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.242231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No6c2,112$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5612918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20c9…b4cebacked No1c2,075$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed No1c2,048$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ee…da09backed Yes19c2,011$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.997636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No5c2,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked No52c1,990$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.073033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2b…f4eebacked No2c1,979$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…9ae6backed Yes18c1,963$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes31c1,877$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.039348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes7c1,869$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.454214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes19c1,862$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.0651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No72c1,825$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.346540%26 W · 39 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3505…3ab0backed No3c1,747$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…6ee6backed No1c1,704$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4f…0a27backed Yes46c1,647$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-45.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No69c1,600$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005749.1%28 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed No5c1,590$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.36166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-87.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No77c1,580$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.781861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c6c…0e79backed Yes29c1,554$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.39944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0080…45bdbacked No1c1,530$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes23c1,474$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.9137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f90…0cb2backed No2c1,432$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No45c1,330$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.834860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes23c1,318$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.386253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes30c1,295$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.9110043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No6c1,250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.754769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes16c1,241$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d12…ab54backed No52c1,238$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.971546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c1,224$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.0858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94dd…7b9ebacked Yes9c1,192$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.193917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c8…461cbacked Yes34c1,189$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes21c1,150$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.4912139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb08d…d759backed No1c1,145$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152040%8 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+46.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd80b…6608backed No2c1,145$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3213…2153backed No2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d75…c6f1backed No71c1,102$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.46887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes19c1,063$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.741118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes71c1,039$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3235652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes10c1,033$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.4222547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes60c1,026$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.453234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No63c1,019$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.493545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x669d…19b0backed No38c1,004$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.732437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed No6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557421.6%16 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes62c993.54$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.6615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.