World Politics · resolved market
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b6d8eeb423d2612b39f5f4f2f3ecf531acdf29f3e1ff57178ba85272ab2217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 9,375$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.92 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 77c | 8,511$6,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.35 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 31c | 5,156$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.29 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 1c | 4,489$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 65c | 3,395$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -5.6wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…1fc7backed Yes | 74c | 2,646$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 32c | 2,355$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.51 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 69c | 2,155$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 31c | 2,063$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 63c | 2,057$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.68 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 71c | 1,978$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.38 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 66c | 1,965$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 30c | 1,963$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed No | 41c | 1,882$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,877$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…46cfbacked No | 23c | 1,676$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No | 34c | 1,634$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed No | 24c | 1,549$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 71c | 1,533$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 1,482$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.38 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,418$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.38 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a4…01f0backed No | 39c | 1,384$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,337$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 26c | 1,270$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.26 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 1,264$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…a0c9backed No | 29c | 1,126$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 15c | 1,089$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 32c | 1,060$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed No | 37c | 1,009$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…8882backed No | 40c | 1,001$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 6c | 999.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 65c | 995$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…3febbacked Yes | 39c | 980$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…7f9dbacked No | 61c | 980$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 26c | 963$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 1c | 820$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d086backed No | 46c | 791.44$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 743.69$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…a8efbacked Yes | 78c | 732.02$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 6c | 699.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…846cbacked Yes | 70c | 665.33$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…1f2cbacked No | 12c | 650$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…1ab0backed Yes | 67c | 650$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 66c | 583.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 65c | 525.71$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 20c | 505.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9acbacked Yes | 60c | 502.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…b820backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…ed73backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…2898backed Yes | 47c | 470.25$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…7d31backed No | 49c | 450$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 43c | 449.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…3318backed No | 32c | 446.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 45c | 444.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…2581backed No | 5c | 415.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…5d12backed No | 28c | 415.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 410$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 409.81$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed No | 25c | 399.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…8e2fbacked No | 26c | 390.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 57c | 382.1$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…55edbacked No | 32c | 375.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…30bebacked No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…07c3backed Yes | 64c | 346.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 345.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…b379backed No | 28c | 333.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 38c | 332.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…e25dbacked Yes | 61c | 327.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…9c7ebacked Yes | 63c | 324.98$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…36b7backed No | 31c | 309.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…0b1bbacked No | 32c | 309.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +108%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…5140backed Yes | 49c | 307.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 42c | 301.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed No | 34c | 295.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…0da6backed No | 34c | 295.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…4fc9backed No | 32c | 294.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 39c | 293.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…0054backed No | 33c | 289.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 49c | 286.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 27c | 272.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…c01fbacked No | 30c | 250.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…7c39backed No | 33c | 240.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 239.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…78aabacked No | 47c | 213.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…97f8backed Yes | 53c | 201.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…562dbacked Yes | 53c | 188.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…9cd3backed Yes | 80c | 187.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…d186backed No | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed Yes | 71c | 179.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 40c | 177.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…ffbcbacked No | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 31c | 169.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?this page
- Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.