World Politics · resolved market
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa37c7f981933d57c02bbf505d839a5ba6d8b31a46ebdc045418420ff2918422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 2c | 100,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 5cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 3c | 13,223$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.44 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 6,338$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked No | 7c | 5,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 3,992$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.05 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…9f9abacked No | 11c | 3,870$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…542ebacked No | 4c | 3,709$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…0643backed No | 13c | 3,591$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 1c | 3,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,381$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 3,062$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…e1dbbacked No | 7c | 3,059$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…86c9backed No | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 2,623$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.27 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 3c | 2,424$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 14c | 2,163$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3f…da87backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 23c | 1,999$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed No | 15c | 1,937$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…90e8backed No | 7c | 1,839$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked No | 6c | 1,711$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f1…c196backed No | 4c | 1,654$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…af77backed No | 8c | 1,420$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed No | 12c | 1,242$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…80b1backed No | 8c | 1,238$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 2c | 1,205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…d296backed No | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 2c | 1,065$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…5524backed No | 7c | 1,024$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 2c | 1,017$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 1,003$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…3e95backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…2971backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…b906backed No | 2c | 943.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…46c2backed No | 3c | 919.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 810.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a827backed No | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 2c | 773.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…b379backed No | 15c | 760.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…d75ebacked No | 7c | 697.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked No | 8c | 671.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…5b11backed No | 6c | 646.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 7c | 640$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 23c | 626.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…e5ebbacked No | 7c | 584.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked No | 9c | 581.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afe…7d52backed No | 19c | 539.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…4058backed No | 17c | 514.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…1f2cbacked No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 71c | 476.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 15c | 459.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…4c95backed No | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 437.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked No | 7c | 408.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…7d78backed No | 7c | 399.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…8423backed No | 5c | 389.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d52…79e6backed No | 8c | 372.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…5c5fbacked No | 7c | 371.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…e380backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…0844backed No | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…cfffbacked No | 6c | 313.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked No | 13c | 307.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 16c | 300.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…4fc9backed No | 8c | 290$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…2642backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…156cbacked No | 6c | 243$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02b…43dcbacked No | 8c | 240.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 12c | 237.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…ad0abacked No | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…f6f0backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed No | 17c | 205$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…5366backed No | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…eab1backed No | 7c | 194.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked No | 12c | 188.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 166.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 10c | 164.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc177…1ff4backed No | 7c | 162.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…3bdcbacked No | 7c | 160.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…bc1abacked Yes | 77c | 130.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…dfbebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…afecbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…911fbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…6c59backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?this page
- Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.