AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec9f89df5b8fdc28c103dce36ccb54c6a07304835d9c233380d6bec0098cc52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 33c | 24,325$7,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,948.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 24c | 22,302$5,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,261.98 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 69c | 17,000$11,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,744.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 36c | 16,981$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,170.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 54c | 13,730$7,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 4c | 12,502$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f0f6backed Yes | 12c | 11,174$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 12c | 10,027$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.08 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,640$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 4,692$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.15 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 33c | 4,320$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 36c | 3,818$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 39c | 3,213$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 4c | 2,253$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 1,597$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.08 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,505$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Yes | 80c | 1,348$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…2657backed Yes | 41c | 1,255$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 1,210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…1632backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 54c | 1,104$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.53 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 55c | 1,060$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 46c | 1,034$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,020$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…9032backed Yes | 54c | 950$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 3c | 859.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 25c | 788.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 708.42$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 64c | 698.74$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.68 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 685.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…9cd9backed Yes | 41c | 603.18$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Yes | 45c | 566.18$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 79c | 549.89$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 4c | 544.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 4c | 528.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Yes | 42c | 485.01$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdd…09dabacked Yes | 64c | 469.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 448.89$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…51bbbacked Yes | 8c | 428.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 6c | 415.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 70c | 412.29$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…4eb8backed Yes | 56c | 355.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 18c | 339.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…a49ebacked Yes | 48c | 334.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5e37backed Yes | 17c | 329.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 325.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 47c | 310.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 45c | 305.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 13c | 302.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 33c | 301.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 75c | 293$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed Yes | 52c | 272.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 269.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…0d74backed Yes | 74c | 238.49$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed Yes | 11c | 237.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked Yes | 21c | 233$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 57c | 229.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 55c | 222.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed Yes | 41c | 221$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 69c | 218.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed No | 47c | 210.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…8280backed Yes | 55c | 195.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…46e6backed Yes | 52c | 192.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 13c | 174.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 48c | 168.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2a…fc95backed Yes | 60c | 167.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 47c | 158.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 69c | 149.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…68a9backed Yes | 48c | 148.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…ec95backed Yes | 69c | 145.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 16c | 139.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…76b0backed Yes | 51c | 138.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 123.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…2989backed Yes | 55c | 122.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…f200backed No | 52c | 112.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 30c | 109.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…5409backed Yes | 54c | 108.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…1c5bbacked Yes | 26c | 103.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd813…83d8backed Yes | 48c | 101.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 79c | 100.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…70c0backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…7bf0backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 73c | 96.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes | 54c | 92.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…b01cbacked Yes | 63c | 90.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…efddbacked Yes | 26c | 89.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?this page
- Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.