AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fdd74dd169f695f4d6fb585b845333c55b86b9a832fa2bc9bab7783e0e00a70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Yes | 0c | 30,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 14,151$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c8b1backed Yes | 0c | 11,866$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,923$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…7346backed Yes | 4c | 1,249$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 611.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 5c | 479.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…74ccbacked Yes | 10c | 240.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…f1f5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…4c95backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 190.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?this page
- Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.