AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca33fe17a88036588f1e515c8561b49dc32dba8f2d0f2da36d884489471bb35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 17c | 21,700$3,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.31 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 66c | 10,967$7,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f0f6backed No | 7c | 10,394$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 6,910$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 4c | 5,321$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 3,933$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.06 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 51c | 3,795$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 11c | 3,108$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.69 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 71c | 2,836$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c8b1backed No | 6c | 2,562$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 68c | 2,332$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.66 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,525$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 50c | 1,503$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…1316backed Yes | 75c | 1,400$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 60c | 1,342$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 1,193$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.29 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,102$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 57c | 1,100$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…f200backed Yes | 52c | 1,040$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 61c | 999.96$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 61c | 995.72$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 19c | 978.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 34c | 952.12$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 914.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 78c | 910.48$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 4c | 873.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 69c | 868.78$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 860$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.79 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes | 80c | 800$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 44c | 717.41$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.98 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked Yes | 35c | 665.09$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 33c | 643.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.14 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 20c | 632.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 564.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 47c | 551.77$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 68c | 543.04$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 77c | 496.1$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…6562backed Yes | 49c | 496.07$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 54c | 473.81$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 10c | 452.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 69c | 423.13$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…b6c1backed Yes | 72c | 413.54$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 59c | 407$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked Yes | 76c | 395.55$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 41c | 385.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed Yes | 78c | 373.75$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed Yes | 72c | 362.95$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 13c | 360$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 51c | 344.3$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…8ddebacked Yes | 58c | 344.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 35c | 338.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed Yes | 43c | 336.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 55c | 325.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…bb3abacked Yes | 76c | 310.1$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…46e6backed Yes | 75c | 306.86$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…e591backed Yes | 63c | 300.57$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…2d08backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 49c | 292.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.41 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed No | 7c | 288.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…d27ebacked Yes | 58c | 273.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 74c | 270.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…cf25backed Yes | 78c | 257.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 40c | 250.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 30c | 242.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 6c | 241.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 46c | 239.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 15c | 232.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 78c | 228.3$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef0…d090backed Yes | 65c | 226.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…9f0ebacked Yes | 68c | 220.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…e909backed No | 7c | 220.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 217.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked No | 8c | 211.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes | 76c | 209.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 75c | 190$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 50c | 181$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 67c | 176.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…45e0backed Yes | 66c | 173.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…eff2backed Yes | 66c | 172.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…2989backed Yes | 63c | 169.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 77c | 168.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…de13backed Yes | 66c | 168.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…9666backed Yes | 66c | 168.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d1…8951backed Yes | 66c | 166.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…a43bbacked Yes | 67c | 164.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…545ebacked Yes | 79c | 159.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…61ebbacked No | 7c | 157.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb8…902abacked Yes | 64c | 157.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 155.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Yes | 80c | 152.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…18bcbacked Yes | 66c | 152.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…fac3backed Yes | 80c | 142.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…880fbacked Yes | 80c | 141.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…450dbacked Yes | 77c | 129.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?this page
- Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.