Us Politics · resolved market
Big Balls removed from DOGE in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3939e258ca9bee8995a7c305303ba741844c7f7534a459aae6ad47c463b7f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 8c | 4,770$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.85 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…04f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,843$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 12c | 2,844$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.79 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 3c | 2,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 13c | 2,010$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.76 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,040$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 8c | 771.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 7c | 687.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…28f0backed Yes | 9c | 624.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 590.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 8c | 555$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 12c | 485.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 22c | 337.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 318.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 24c | 293.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed Yes | 13c | 281.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed No | 77c | 224.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 11c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 20c | 191.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 10c | 184.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 24c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4cd3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 116.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…dc5dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 24c | 81.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed No | 78c | 79.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 23c | 73.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…047ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…a513backed No | 69c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 80c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.