Movies · resolved market
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0eefd4d970dbf2aa61cb70225077291e7285447d1b663e1a4fea597bba4fbec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $439,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efa…acbebacked Yes | 0c | 64,100$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 33c | 42,065$13,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,964.42 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 10c | 29,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 26c | 25,432$6,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,559.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 17c | 24,800$4,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.84 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 24,033$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…b8dcbacked Yes | 0c | 15,537$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 39c | 15,347$6,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,014.34 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 44c | 13,735$6,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,087.44 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 10,490$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.6 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 3c | 7,677$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 10c | 7,599$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.82 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 9c | 6,380$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 23c | 6,370$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.75 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 6,100$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.42 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 0c | 6,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…0540backed No | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 25c | 3,827$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…8309backed Yes | 19c | 3,544$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 52c | 3,488$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.43 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 66c | 3,457$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.06 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 50c | 3,417$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.97 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 48c | 3,300$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.28 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 3,174$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.89 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 66c | 2,855$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.74 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 50c | 2,567$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.03 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…306fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,433$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 61c | 2,387$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.01 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 63c | 2,300$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 20c | 2,257$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.87 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…2be6backed Yes | 22c | 2,213$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 50c | 2,179$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.18 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 70c | 2,073$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.72 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.62 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,994$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,992$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 6c | 1,860$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 3c | 1,766$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,687$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.59 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 1c | 1,684$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,455$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…9c10backed No | 62c | 1,390$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 18c | 1,379$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,293$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.86 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 12c | 1,246$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 47c | 1,187$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.72 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…fccfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 49c | 1,100$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 53c | 1,088$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed No | 45c | 1,088$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 60c | 1,057$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 50c | 1,052$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 51c | 1,032$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 46c | 1,000$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.51 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…d13cbacked Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 22c | 810$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 784.3$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.79 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 76c | 750$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 31c | 742.77$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 80c | 603.85$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 57c | 602.57$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…3506backed Yes | 19c | 600.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 48c | 600$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 74c | 590.69$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 24c | 584.41$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…9e4cbacked Yes | 19c | 557.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 27c | 531.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 45c | 520.52$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 25c | 511.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 27c | 510$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 19c | 509.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8155…5377backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 50c | 499$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 56c | 480.95$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 462.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 5c | 459.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 61c | 450$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 21c | 448.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 19c | 442.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5e37backed Yes | 20c | 432.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 4c | 420$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 24c | 413.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 49c | 412.34$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes | 23c | 409.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 22c | 400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked No | 50c | 398.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 4c | 392.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 34c | 386.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…a385backed Yes | 46c | 378.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 59c | 358$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?this page
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Yes won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.