TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$582,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$439,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7efa…acbebacked Yes0c64,100$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes33c42,065$13,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,964.4217751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3779…0f80backed Yes10c29,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes26c25,432$6,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,559.72955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes17c24,800$4,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,336.846023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c24,033$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c4…b8dcbacked Yes0c15,537$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.97714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-81%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes39c15,347$6,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,014.345026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes44c13,735$6,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,087.446918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes8c10,490$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.61799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes3c7,677$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.716040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed Yes10c7,599$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.8211836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes9c6,380$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.69160%0 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes23c6,370$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.7516350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c6,100$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.4247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes0c6,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302512%3 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c5,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf0…0540backed No57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked Yes25c3,827$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes19c3,544$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes52c3,488$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.436622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No66c3,457$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.063831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes50c3,417$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.9720049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes48c3,300$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.2818431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No49c3,174$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.8950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No66c2,855$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.745848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes50c2,567$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.0332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…306fbacked Yes2c2,433$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes61c2,387$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.018330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe306…d100backed Yes63c2,300$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes20c2,257$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8714530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04b…2be6backed Yes22c2,213$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed No50c2,179$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.188633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No70c2,073$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.7218719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes14c2,000$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.612846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6213635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.991625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes16c1,994$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-70.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes2c1,992$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.534114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7814…5ecebacked Yes6c1,860$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7390%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes3c1,766$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.171286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes48c1,687$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.596640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x853e…5e10backed Yes1c1,684$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes2c1,455$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.04234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x621f…9c10backed No62c1,390$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes18c1,379$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes50c1,293$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.8619031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes12c1,246$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes47c1,187$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.723920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe756…fccfbacked Yes4c1,135$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No49c1,100$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.121020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes53c1,088$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5779932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x453c…37e4backed No45c1,088$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No60c1,057$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes50c1,052$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.82516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d93…f70abacked Yes51c1,032$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No46c1,000$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5111625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…d13cbacked Yes54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes22c810$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1762528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c784.3$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes52c769.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No76c750$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe4f…5241backed Yes31c742.77$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No80c603.85$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.772227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes57c602.57$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.737022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x337f…3506backed Yes19c600.35$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes48c600$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No74c590.69$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.443076.7%23 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes24c584.41$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90e…9e4cbacked Yes19c557.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes27c531.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.877126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No45c520.52$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.472330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes25c511.6$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9815059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes27c510$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes19c509.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8155…5377backed Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes50c499$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes56c480.95$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.289441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes15c462.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2132739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes5c459.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.982010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed No61c450$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.2510037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes21c448.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0626041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes19c442.49$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.347030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4da…5e37backed Yes20c432.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Yes4c420$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked Yes24c413.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes49c412.34$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes23c409.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.26911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18413119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes22c400$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked No50c398.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.94934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed Yes4c392.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes34c386.7$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.972035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae8…a385backed Yes46c378.25$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes59c358$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes28c350$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.131216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.