TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes70c34,453$23,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,473.717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes40c10,462$4,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,297.2832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3779…0f80backed No8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes44c9,518$4,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,323.266918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c7,600$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.5747328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c7,468$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.031799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes43c6,979$3,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,973.995026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No1c6,362$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes77c5,559$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.965536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked No2c4,848$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes63c4,552$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.6520049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes68c3,829$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.898633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No21c3,001$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.3418719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes44c2,905$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.398330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c2,796$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No67c2,557$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.8918431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes28c2,396$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.236640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa93c…17b2backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.093745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No30c1,871$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.652955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes77c1,855$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.952433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes80c1,792$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.963161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes31c1,440$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.536622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes48c1,322$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.9717041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes45c1,276$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.3110037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes22c1,227$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.5926041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes38c1,180$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.074934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes71c1,171$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed No11c1,081$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.81160%0 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes31c1,000$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.6919031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes27c805$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.83920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes66c631.82$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.319932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes77c510.68$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.413831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes21c500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes31c480.88$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.599441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes60c476.77$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.172152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes11c440.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.982010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a3…1d61backed Yes61c438.4$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes40c403.54$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.842040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c387.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Yes70c377.04$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.313076.7%23 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c303.44$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes54c290.84$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4514530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked Yes34c289.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.042250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed Yes74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.273100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes78c262.82$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.821369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes46c254.41$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.623420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c241.51$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3436538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes25c236.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.371936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked Yes80c233.17$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.651330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes53c220$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes63c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8155…5377backed Yes66c199.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes69c194.82$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0615059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked No73c192.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.884114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes28c192.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0519836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes47c173.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.514050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes24c170$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5387…77bfbacked No27c156.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes27c143.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.439441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No66c140$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9613135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes38c139.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.122231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes26c138.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.152944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No73c135$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.551118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4538…a54cbacked Yes78c134.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes50c133.18$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.591540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes29c130$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…6020backed No23c126.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked No71c121$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.48422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No63c119.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.31566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes20c116.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.327839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c111.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+57.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d48…6910backed Yes43c97.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No73c94.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.32070%14 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes64c92.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.618023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.35349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd44…2a19backed Yes70c86.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83eb…2ea6backed Yes69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes70c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes32c75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bb…dc63backed No58c73.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa724…7d50backed No33c70.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No33c68.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.671330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd5…5542backed Yes60c66.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe052…ddb0backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac99…1380backed Yes18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes27c58.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.081513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3483…739abacked No58c56.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fe…5435backed Yes77c50.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.