Movies · resolved market
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce4a0c6e9e17045481e5dcfb7b75d2a6a439610bff084d803a16142281192d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 1c | 60,163$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 23,504$18,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,388.98 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 14c | 15,643$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.34 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 12,885$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.45 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 9,521$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.92 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 7c | 9,166$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…3506backed Yes | 0c | 8,051$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 17c | 7,745$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 13c | 7,020$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.89 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,317$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.19 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 23c | 6,314$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.93 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed Yes | 19c | 6,033$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 4,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 0c | 3,990$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 1c | 3,693$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,584$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.29 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 17c | 3,020$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,679$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,641$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.03 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 1c | 2,462$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 8c | 2,338$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,038$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,996$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,930$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,534$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 1c | 1,433$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 9c | 1,211$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 6c | 992.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 2c | 939.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 15c | 936.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 6c | 910$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 14c | 889.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 11c | 874.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 20c | 835$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 14c | 718.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 10c | 631.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 10c | 618.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 18c | 560.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…6cc9backed Yes | 7c | 526.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 26c | 515.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 74c | 453.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 8c | 395.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 9c | 383.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 358.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 16c | 316.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes | 15c | 290$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 12c | 270.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 22c | 231.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 230.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 13c | 214.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 7c | 203.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 29c | 169.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 11c | 133.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 15c | 102.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 100.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…b473backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5e37backed Yes | 17c | 85.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 18c | 73.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…191fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d12fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?this page
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Yes won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.