Movies · resolved market
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ad0de2456fde7fc8900d139e846cb356e43e8a0ac73fc9360280e9bdd29121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 0c | 31,843$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,273$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3593…689cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,640$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8ce7backed Yes | 0c | 19,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611b…ccfabacked Yes | 0c | 11,704$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 1c | 10,776$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,632$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 5,959$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…ef04backed Yes | 0c | 4,753$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 0c | 4,364$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,299$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 2,919$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,757$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 4c | 2,737$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,594$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,263$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,583$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 770.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Yes | 2c | 480.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 4c | 425.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 415.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 323.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?this page
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Yes won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.