Movies · resolved market
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0deb0ac927c7d1baac2fa19a1f8b2aae0035c0fdce386047c1bfb10e109a02aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 0c | 37,910$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 10,290$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.72 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…723dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 2c | 8,943$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,427$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,773$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,210$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 2c | 5,156$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,088$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 6c | 2,084$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 5c | 1,720$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 1c | 1,556$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,552$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,542$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,513$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 4c | 1,116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,080$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,037$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7283…0cd6backed Yes | 5c | 902$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfae…a924backed Yes | 2c | 813.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 710.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc6…86a9backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 2c | 614.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…baa4backed Yes | 2c | 523.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 510.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 5c | 322.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 6c | 206.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?this page
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Yes won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?No won
- Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.