TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c5,397$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.681508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No58c4,891$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.55552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes45c2,111$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.091323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No32c1,770$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes69c1,463$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No5c1,400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No12c1,250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7503100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+150.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed No8c905.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0616…0f99backed No5c899.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No54c865.05$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.864454.5%24 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No47c820.12$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.413557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes29c533.87$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.071010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes64c524.74$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.481668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No38c507$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes42c505.51$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.721894.4%17 W · 1 L+6.2wins+0.35per pick60cpaid+73.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-74.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x734f…b3b7backed No6c480$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No37c459.45$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.371369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes49c410.68$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.685671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c399.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19210143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…b6afbacked No7c366.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No6c350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked No12c329.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.29100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf336…a81ebacked No8c296.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed No8c262.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes41c241.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No34c232.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.29966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No51c231.91$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.68234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80f8…6713backed Yes69c216.8$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes49c205.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked Yes71c188.05$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.769181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes57c168.42$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No35c143.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes64c140$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No19c125.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c122.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3131439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed Yes68c111.82$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No65c110$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203560%21 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No54c97.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes42c88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked No35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No57c82.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.435276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0661…a72ebacked Yes70c81.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No48c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes67c77.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked No68c75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No34c72.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.532825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No22c63.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.67131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c55.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3526830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No58c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9310442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1837…cf3abacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.621838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes34c47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.084443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa919…170ebacked Yes69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…ea25backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf9…0d23backed Yes77c39.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…50f5backed No34c38.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No27c38.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.341275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8a…0529backed No39c32.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No62c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…6c0fbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes50c21.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-75%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87af…04f4backed Yes68c19.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5029…534cbacked Yes74c18.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x058e…192bbacked Yes74c18.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c2…e04ebacked Yes74c18.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83c…cd3abacked Yes73c16.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.