NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ca6dded40f4ff94d12dc93ec72297cf79be72a3626c0d2fe57aafa515c61dc

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,975 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5091…23e9backed No	77c	710$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.5	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	23c	405.51$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.85	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	10c	310$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	80c	222.75$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.55	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes	23c	176.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	14c	162$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	21c	119.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	22c	114.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	17c	109.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	35c	60$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5177…a0f6backed No	66c	49.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event