TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,935 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd673…0c20backed Yes0c99,705$399 inLost-$398.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df6…bb77backed Yes14c58,000$8,120 inLost-$8,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes15c1,500$228 inLost-$228.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-74.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes18c1,114$200 inLost-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e72…743cbacked Yes25c456.85$116 inLost-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…9d99backed Yes15c329.99$51 inLost-$50.840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffb0…5fa4backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost-$5070%0 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes13c274$35 inLost-$35.3260%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed Yes18c261$46 inLost-$46.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes18c220$39 inLost-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No79c189$150 inWon+$38.822343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No79c180$142 inWon+$38.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes14c160$22 inLost-$2270%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c151.99$23 inLost-$22.9326830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes16c125$20 inLost-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Yes32c110$35 inLost-$353560%21 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes18c91.18$17 inLost-$16.687131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes12c84$10 inLost-$10.084443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes20c77.56$16 inLost-$15.8860%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked No56c50$28 inWon+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No55c31.34$17 inWon+$14.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.