TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Greenland" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,564 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes12c1,006$118 inLost-$118.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4257…7af7backed Yes13c996.82$127 inLost-$127.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes11c700$77 inLost-$772343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes18c642.57$115 inLost-$114.98137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.7wins-0.36per pick44cpaid-90%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes14c346.33$50 inLost-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes13c329.3$42 inLost-$41.688234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes15c318.66$48 inLost-$47.825643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes9c259.3$24 inLost-$23.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes10c251$26 inLost-$26.2631439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes7c206$14 inLost-$13.862825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes17c200$34 inLost-$341315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb00…5025backed Yes8c177.27$15 inLost-$15100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2af6…b030backed Yes19c110$21 inLost-$20.940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c101.74$13 inLost-$13.3826830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$13812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes24c88.88$21 inLost-$21.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes14c73$10 inLost-$10.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No72c16.25$12 inWon+$4.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.