NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "DEI" or "Diversity Equity and Inclusion" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dfb43b09ad3a728becb5c299384b40424a7533c80e54f844e1e3c9b911e633

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,203 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd398…46d7backed No	74c	1,372$1,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.18	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	32c	775.39$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	66c	566.83$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.84	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	74c	406.98$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.41	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes	27c	394.22$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	44cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	73c	206$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.26	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6a…9d99backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	28c	163.75$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.85	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	77c	155$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.65	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xb80f…cbf7backed Yes	27c	138.52$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed No	76c	138.02$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	28c	135.53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes	25c	135$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked No	75c	132.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.89	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes	25c	99.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	72c	99.99$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked Yes	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No	74c	90$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	75c	86$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.7	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No	74c	81$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	70c	80.8$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.86	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	26c	75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-56%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes	27c	53.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.32per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x71c7…05dfbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	73c	49.4$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.18	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x477b…27debacked No	71c	27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No	74c	14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.64	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "DEI" or "Diversity Equity and Inclusion" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event