NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe821ae220a3a4c1c616c760d9b71ff5692f8ade379f325bdab57997346ec8501

Rebuilt 17 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes	8c	999.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4257…7af7backed Yes	18c	562.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes	19c	527.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	78c	390$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.2	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe8b0…f01cbacked Yes	15c	317.2$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes	25c	300$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	12c	225.44$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.79	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	14c	220$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	10c	208.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	22c	200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes	12c	190$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…e452backed Yes	18c	168.06$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes	14c	157.61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	17c	151.19$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	16c	144.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb94…2a12backed Yes	24c	99.54$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes	14c	85.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5177…a0f6backed No	73c	84.57$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.6	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes	26c	83.09$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	23c	57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes	21c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68bc…4bb1backed Yes	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4265…45a6backed Yes	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	62c	20.53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.71	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event