TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd673…0c20backed Yes0c71,500$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No53c3,835$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.435552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes48c2,925$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes1c2,167$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No52c2,093$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.351894.4%17 W · 1 L+6.2wins+0.35per pick60cpaid+73.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c1,671$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.721508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No54c1,301$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes40c1,100$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-74.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4257…7af7backed Yes45c1,100$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49550%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f6c…6909backed Yes3c1,049$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes45c1,007$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.33120%0 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No49c1,000$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No59c912.49$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.375276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes47c898.76$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.141668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes42c748.33$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes55c699$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.452343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed No63c630.16$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9825…f8e8backed Yes51c612.7$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No59c505.12$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4225643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No54c418.34$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.154454.5%24 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No55c407.82$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.59181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…4e95backed No52c375.75$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.75850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No62c301.68$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.251275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes39c299.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No65c279.45$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes38c261.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes38c252.63$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes46c240$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22f0…da29backed Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe32…8a0abacked Yes9c228.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes49c226.6$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.636346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf482…d3c3backed Yes45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…9d99backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes53c190.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Yes38c187.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No54c176.36$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.438234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed No71c175.81$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.53560%21 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No64c165.16$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c36…74dfbacked No70c151$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes40c118.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3860%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No56c118.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No54c113.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.687131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes23c108.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.352825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No63c104.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed Yes40c100.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes40c93.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0226830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd9c4…a0b3backed No62c90.23$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes40c87.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked No57c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No67c73.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0938459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c67.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2431439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7061…6096backed Yes45c66.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No57c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6510442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked No74c52.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1837…cf3abacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1b89backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes44c49.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8413547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf336…a81ebacked No59c47.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No61c47.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes49c46.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes55c45.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…6c0fbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes38c37.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-75%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4265…45a6backed Yes53c37.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe395…2a72backed Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x354f…f46ebacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb0…69d2backed Yes54c19.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477b…27debacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.