NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x335072210229726404a4fc1769856b394773f175f094351ab8b7f71e61c6cde8

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,810 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5c74…cc9fbacked Yes	25c	36,121$9,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,030.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64dc…ad9ebacked No	75c	36,121$27,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,030.14	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	11c	1,267$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.02	150	8%12 W · 138 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed No	66c	1,232$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.7	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	67c	1,110$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.28	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	40c	593.27$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	33c	500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked No	65c	499.99$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes	36c	473.94$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	25c	399.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.1	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes	35c	353$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.55	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No	63c	306.98$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes	35c	263.45$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.11	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa70f…993dbacked Yes	39c	255.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	37c	161.72$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	63c	156.1$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.4	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes	37c	155.86$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	44cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed No	67c	150.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.3	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+52%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	32c	136.47$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No	64c	120$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	37c	119.64$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	38c	110$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	72c	103.77$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.29	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	62c	93$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	31c	87.81$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9c8…e402backed No	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	39c	80.71$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	68c	62.49$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93c6…20f1backed Yes	36c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2af6…b030backed Yes	45c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes	39c	54.74$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.32per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	64c	52.54$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.91	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-4.7wins	-0.36per pick	44cpaid	-90%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No	54c	38.64$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.63	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf336…a81ebacked No	68c	35.59$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No	75c	33.91$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.48	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No	80c	32.94$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.59	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes	53c	31.08$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.20per pick	55cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9693…8e80backed No	70c	18.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.57	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event