NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d7dbfc8fbc0c5c69296b1a0669605399a7eb161a4fff8ae23ddc5f0bf60114

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $178,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5c74…cc9fbacked Yes	16c	53,118$8,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,498.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e55…e3b9backed Yes	16c	33,000$5,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,280	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No	75c	1,413$1,065 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.46	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	67c	871.51$584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.39	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes	34c	685$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.06	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	18c	650$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.7	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	16c	622.72$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.21	150	8%12 W · 138 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes	31c	324.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	79c	260.46$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.7	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Yes	22c	224.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+67.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	31c	200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb285…40b8backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	17c	192$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No	78c	151.29$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.8	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	46cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No	79c	150$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	22c	136.51$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	74c	120$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	52	76.9%40 W · 12 L	+8.7wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked No	77c	120$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	79c	118.98$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.32	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7061…6096backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	384	59.9%230 W · 154 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No	68c	73.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-56%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	67c	70$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.1	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93c6…20f1backed Yes	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed No	78c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes	32c	51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	26c	50.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed No	67c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	76c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No	79c	17.02$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.62	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event