TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e55…e3b9backed Yes20c33,191$6,638 inLost-$6,638.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64dc…ad9ebacked No80c33,191$26,553 inWon+$6,638.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c1,074$98 inLost-$98.071508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes6c500$30 inLost-$308348.2%40 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes6c377$22 inLost-$21.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No77c299.46$232 inWon+$67.71369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes22c273.67$61 inLost-$61.128234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes22c270$61 inLost-$60.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c143.82$31 inLost-$31.2726830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No60c129.21$78 inWon+$51.681020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes40c118.32$47 inLost-$47.33137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.7wins-0.36per pick44cpaid-90%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes26c105$27 inLost-$27.36346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c93$72 inWon+$21.3910143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes26c80$21 inLost-$20.7120%0 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No78c74.99$58 inWon+$16.55552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No68c71.58$49 inWon+$22.915100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes20c70$14 inLost-$1470%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No75c66.67$50 inWon+$16.672035%7 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No75c40$30 inWon+$107939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No53c26.98$14 inWon+$12.682343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…a0f6backed No73c25.93$19 inWon+$7560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c8…2102backed No76c20$15 inWon+$4.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.