NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d0f482b77bd5911ea30ecbabee5fd78dba21f082565bfae87674260c2fa6590

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,379 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No	74c	3,358$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.4	52	76.9%40 W · 12 L	+8.7wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	25c	1,866$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.16	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	65c	1,435$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.3	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	29c	1,230$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.51	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes	27c	1,009$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.47	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No	73c	1,000$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+67.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes	33c	681.49$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.89	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes	32c	600$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	32c	500$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed No	62c	400$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe68…6b19backed Yes	26c	391.62$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-4.7wins	-0.36per pick	44cpaid	-90%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	65c	263.57$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.23	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa70f…993dbacked No	63c	158.73$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.73	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed No	65c	153.76$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.76	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+52%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No	68c	147.35$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.35	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes	28c	100.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.59	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.2wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+84.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes	41c	88$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.32per pick	46cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	69c	87.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	71c	79.22$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No	65c	72$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes	38c	70.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.63	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95dc…4b45backed No	74c	70$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes	38c	60$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No	72c	55$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	37c	54.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	41c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes	49c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+5.0wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	63c	37.7$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc61…3319backed No	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a8…90c1backed No	63c	23.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+68.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event