TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes42c7,803$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes41c4,269$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.898636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes29c3,749$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.893016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes19c3,555$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.161233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No79c3,320$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b7…ff46backed Yes27c2,882$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes41c2,810$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.332630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes40c2,178$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes21c1,600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes41c1,532$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes23c1,500$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.242748.1%13 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+28.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes14c1,351$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.451323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes35c1,170$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.85944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb741…b462backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed Yes44c984.17$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0653…690ebacked Yes37c875$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes18c800.35$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.341414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…88bebacked Yes25c799.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.35156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d15…d6e4backed No63c770$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+182.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb381…98f8backed Yes45c757$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.65933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c701.05$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.89144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6037…1e45backed No60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Yes26c677.36$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked Yes31c674.27$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3674…faedbacked No63c665$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1177…3fe3backed Yes38c660$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed No56c656$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bd…3cd7backed Yes31c640.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes30c602$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.38425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes40c586.62$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.255032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes43c501.44$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca7…207ebacked Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b2…447ebacked Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes22c499.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes25c499.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.711717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes34c472.67$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c01…d612backed Yes22c450$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb2…4490backed Yes40c435$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes13c429.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.611039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes28c405.48$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes46c402$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.92520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes40c399.48$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.62425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes46c380$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes23c361.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.731625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1231…27e8backed Yes38c335$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5c…3898backed No62c320$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7364…7f38backed Yes40c315$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8050…49ffbacked No63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes33c283.37$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes38c274.86$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes25c272$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.661735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes32c267.16$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d5…709bbacked Yes27c259.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed Yes44c249$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.59560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+94.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…9ae8backed No62c245$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No72c241$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.462070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes39c240$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.185022%11 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No64c236$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.12850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…b31cbacked No62c235$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b7…cd8dbacked Yes38c234.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424c…5390backed No63c230$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes53c228.31$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7629…cddabacked Yes19c225$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c222$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6929913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes32c202.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.864751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c2…3a00backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c178.82$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1215148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No70c173.33$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.63070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eca…01f2backed No60c165$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb11…15eebacked Yes26c153.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes23c151.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.756429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes40c144.17$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.526532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2928…cadabacked Yes28c142.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes12c139.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ab…9c67backed Yes45c132.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee35…95b1backed No60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabd…c68fbacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c123.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1420242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e0…8d71backed Yes18c110.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf52…41d9backed Yes18c109.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdad…d8b0backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…c4d4backed Yes41c96.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes25c94.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No78c90.28$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x509c…e581backed Yes44c90.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24cb…94dcbacked Yes37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1eb…933cbacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.