Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aaef4800c8b05472367f57ad830b80a6d17066dfbb185e3938cc28e1b41ff53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes | 42c | 7,803$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 41c | 4,269$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.89 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 29c | 3,749$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.89 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 19c | 3,555$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 79c | 3,320$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…ff46backed Yes | 27c | 2,882$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 41c | 2,810$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 40c | 2,178$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,532$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,500$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 14c | 1,351$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,170$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…b462backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Yes | 44c | 984.17$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked Yes | 37c | 875$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 800.35$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 25c | 799.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…d6e4backed No | 63c | 770$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…98f8backed Yes | 45c | 757$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 701.05$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.8 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6037…1e45backed No | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 26c | 677.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 31c | 674.27$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…faedbacked No | 63c | 665$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1177…3fe3backed Yes | 38c | 660$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 56c | 656$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…3cd7backed Yes | 31c | 640.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 30c | 602$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 40c | 586.62$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.25 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 43c | 501.44$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…207ebacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…447ebacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 22c | 499.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 25c | 499.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 34c | 472.67$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…d612backed Yes | 22c | 450$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…4490backed Yes | 40c | 435$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 13c | 429.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 28c | 405.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 46c | 402$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 40c | 399.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 361.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…27e8backed Yes | 38c | 335$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…3898backed No | 62c | 320$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…7f38backed Yes | 40c | 315$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 33c | 283.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 38c | 274.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 25c | 272$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes | 32c | 267.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked Yes | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 44c | 249$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…9ae8backed No | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 241$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 39c | 240$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 64c | 236$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked No | 62c | 235$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…cd8dbacked Yes | 38c | 234.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed No | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 53c | 228.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…cddabacked Yes | 19c | 225$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 222$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 32c | 202.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 178.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 70c | 173.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…01f2backed No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…15eebacked Yes | 26c | 153.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 23c | 151.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 40c | 144.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Yes | 28c | 142.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 12c | 139.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…9c67backed Yes | 45c | 132.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…c68fbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 123.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 18c | 110.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 18c | 109.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…c4d4backed Yes | 41c | 96.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 25c | 94.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 78c | 90.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509c…e581backed Yes | 44c | 90.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…933cbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?this page
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.