Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93d06094398583af003c0f2b3319e4cf2f080fb1e304aadfccbc870600751e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 3c | 13,412$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 5,912$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.52 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 15c | 3,390$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.07 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,580$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 12c | 2,416$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.38 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 6c | 2,404$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 2,404$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 3c | 2,111$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,109$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,711$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 10c | 1,700$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,571$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,185$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…414bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,082$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 8c | 852$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 5c | 810$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 20c | 798.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712a…85c5backed Yes | 17c | 782.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 15c | 754.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 6c | 622$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 14c | 602$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 10c | 600$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 14c | 502.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 492.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 16c | 453.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked Yes | 12c | 415.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 5c | 380.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…d4f0backed Yes | 18c | 365.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 10c | 349.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…e2bcbacked Yes | 6c | 339.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 20c | 333.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 80c | 313.46$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 5c | 307$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 9c | 304.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 6c | 283.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 270.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…a8c2backed Yes | 19c | 266.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 261.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 20c | 254.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes | 15c | 219.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 14c | 214.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 16c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…907abacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 15c | 151.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547a…d032backed Yes | 19c | 132.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ef…50fabacked Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…ec78backed Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 122.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 18c | 120.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 14c | 118.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 18c | 101.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7974…931fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 12c | 92.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 12c | 86.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?this page
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.