TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,108 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes15c4,670$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,974.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes13c4,312$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.951233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes25c4,000$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.922748.1%13 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+28.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes17c2,251$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.84850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes15c2,201$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.161643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes16c2,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+87.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes12c1,909$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.358636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes12c1,600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4082630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes21c1,593$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.672045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes15c1,500$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+86.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes14c1,485$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.371020%2 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes15c1,236$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.661735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes12c1,132$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.28728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes13c1,099$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d9…4c5ebacked Yes17c1,000$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+138.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac1…154bbacked Yes15c1,000$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+118.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked Yes15c972.47$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No11c908$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c908$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2928…cadabacked Yes20c851.34$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Yes15c850$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7241100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+574.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes18c760.33$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.2310433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…0221backed Yes71c725.57$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+285.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No77c658.24$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.583016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x07d5…709bbacked Yes28c648.77$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes22c570$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a5…47ecbacked Yes19c563.47$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+72.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes62c518.52$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.93847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes26c479$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes13c470$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+161.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed Yes20c469$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+94.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9443…e5ecbacked Yes28c403.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+151.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d0…4843backed Yes12c400.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.061136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No77c380.01$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.614751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c347.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.796532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes11c304$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.165022%11 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes13c301.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.651625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes13c300$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes13c300$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+136.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b7…cd8dbacked Yes32c293.09$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes18c290$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1523330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…2dccbacked Yes15c266.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes16c257.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.121717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb381…98f8backed Yes14c227$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7629…cddabacked Yes50c217.65$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.65825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ab…9c67backed Yes10c200.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.441030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ce…da52backed Yes26c191.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+66.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c184.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c179$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.0214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes15c150$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes13c150$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x117a…02ffbacked Yes17c145.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e60…19d9backed Yes25c144.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d27…6d33backed Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes20c129.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e0…8d71backed Yes19c127$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed No80c125.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf56…414bbacked Yes16c124.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.34540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+87.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes20c117$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes19c112$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes16c103$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.552540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b5e…9d53backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes17c99.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.931717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes16c99.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes12c96.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.634854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30dc…eb17backed Yes17c85.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+472.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes19c82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+75.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e6…e40dbacked Yes17c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No79c75.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No36c70.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes20c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.16429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24d…0a3ebacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+240.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4029913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ddf…3410backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No74c35.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.942642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No77c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.171675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db6…e32fbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.